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Post by Deleted on Jun 1, 2020 12:18:11 GMT
The whole thing has been massively subject to confirmation bias. People who already disliked the government pretty much all think that they’ve done a bad job / people who actively hate the government hold them personally responsible for every single death, and people who support the government think they’re doing a good enough job in impossible circumstances. For my view, we won’t actually know what they’ve got right and what they’ve got wrong for at least another 6 - 12 months, but gut feeling is that sending people out of hospitals back to their care homes will prove to be the only truly disastrous error of decisions made in March / April. The shop reopening next week also looks to have the potential for disaster. It is ever thus HTC! People by nature simply want their opinions reinforced they dont want to hear or consider alternative perspectives , the angrier they get the more likely they are to feel they are actually wrong and they react to it by either avoidance or "retribution" Life is a perpetual risk, its all about mitigating risk and reducing it to a minimum. As you say many of the questions being asked will only be answered accurately retrospectively.
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Post by HTC on Jun 1, 2020 12:21:54 GMT
I’m really not sure it was always the case to this extent.
Social media created filter bubbles have certainly supercharged the phenomenon I’d say.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 1, 2020 12:37:19 GMT
I’m really not sure it was always the case to this extent. Social media created filter bubbles have certainly supercharged the phenomenon I’d say. Depends which sites you visit as to responses and social media does of course bombard us with all of the spectrum of opinion, but that then has the same effect of hardening opinion and not allowing genuine constrcutive debate and consideration of alternative understandings. If you are a Tory you arent going to frequent Momentum and vici versa.People are only really comfortable when amongst their own "clan" of people who think the same as they do. Also fake news from all directions predominates throughout the world sadly, and it isnt going to get better it seems.
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Post by geordiehatter on Jun 1, 2020 12:39:31 GMT
Very good points about confirmation bias and bubbles. I was actually taken aback last night when my neighbour, who I generally talk with socially, not politically, responded to me criticizing govt's handling of the crisis, in his view Johnson and crew are indeed 'doing what they can, considering'.. and it's the fault of individual citizens not taking responsibility, if social distancing falters and we have another peak. '..nothing to do with Cummings'.
I didn't have a ready response..and it made me realise that's because in my bubble everyone despises the Tories, so I'm not used to having to consider/counter views that start from a different place.
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Post by Mozzer on Jun 1, 2020 12:43:11 GMT
Well, I put aside my prejudices at the start and I think from the reaction to the lockdown so did a lot of people.
Their words and actions since have both betrayed their weaknesses and undermined the trust people should have in any government in such a situation.
I can give you the following very significant failings now, that do not require an inquiry because they are so obvious:
Failure to learn from Italy and others, costing us at least a fortnight. We had an advantage we threw away. Care homes. This is a failure of such catastrophic proportions people should end up in the dock, not just lose their jobs. PPE for frontline staff - failure to deliver that was both avoidable and shameful. The response to Cummings (not his behaviour per se). This does not excuse all behaviour of the public, but it is key to the undermining of trust and to changing the perception of us all being in it together. We're now all individuals.
I've got others that I accept are more arguable at this stage so I won't put those forward.
I think the furloughing thing has largely been reasonable to date, although there are failures within that. It doesn't help those let down by it and will be of little comfort, but I think any government would struggle to put together a financial package that would be perfect.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 1, 2020 12:51:20 GMT
Very good points about confirmation bias and bubbles. I was actually taken aback last night when my neighbour, who I generally talk with socially, not politically, responded to me criticizing govt's handling of the crisis, in his view Johnson and crew are indeed 'doing what they can, considering'.. and it's the fault of individual citizens not taking responsibility, if social distancing falters and we have another peak. '..nothing to do with Cummings'. I didn't have a ready response..and it made me realise that's because in my bubble everyone despises the Tories, so I'm not used to having to consider/counter views that start from a different place. Human nature is that we each typically believe that our opinion is the right opinion and often defend it to extremes even after we are made fully aware that we have been wrong. What typically happens then is we get very angry, usually with ourselves, but thats when we run away or try to change the subject or shout and rant and become abusive to defend the possibly indefensible even more! Defensiveness is also very frustrating. You may feel this when you’re trying to make a point, and it seems people arent really listening to you. Not that ever happens on message boards of course.
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Post by HTC on Jun 1, 2020 12:57:12 GMT
On Italy, I’d say that’s still an unknown - we need to wait to see final figures / second spike etc. before we can know either way for sure. The great unknown is how the public would have reacted if the lockdown was imposed too ‘early’? You can argue that imposing the lockdown slightly later meant people adhered to it far more.
The PPE thing is an interesting one - I feel the government were attempting to obtain as much as they could, but were unable to do so. When you bear in mind the global capacity for PPE production, and the fact that the whole world was trying to obtain the stuff, I’m not sure quite how much more could have been done at that time?
I see Cummings as too recent to make a call about - initial feeling I’d that it’ll ultimately be similar to the mixed messages coming from the government around the 8 May Bank Holiday. A bad thing, and something that encouraged those already keen to end lockdown to act irresponsibly. If lockdown completely breaks down in the next few days - I’ll completely agree with you there.
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Post by Mozzer on Jun 1, 2020 12:59:58 GMT
Very good points about confirmation bias and bubbles. I was actually taken aback last night when my neighbour, who I generally talk with socially, not politically, responded to me criticizing govt's handling of the crisis, in his view Johnson and crew are indeed 'doing what they can, considering'.. and it's the fault of individual citizens not taking responsibility, if social distancing falters and we have another peak. '..nothing to do with Cummings'. I didn't have a ready response..and it made me realise that's because in my bubble everyone despises the Tories, so I'm not used to having to consider/counter views that start from a different place. Human nature is that we each typically believe that our opinion is the right opinion and often defend it to extremes even after we are made fully aware that we have been wrong. What typically happens then is we get very angry, usually with ourselves, but thats when we run away or try to change the subject or shout and rant and become abusive to defend the possibly indefensible even more! Defensiveness is also very frustrating. You may feel this when you’re trying to make a point, and it seems people arent really listening to you. Not that ever happens on message boards of course. I get angry with people who refuse to acknowledge verifiable facts, not with people who have a different opinion to mine. I also give up on people who make a point then duck out on debating it. Especially if they cry about being censored in those circumstances. Differences of opinion are great and indeed are important. Shithousery of the sort described above I've utterly lost patience with.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 1, 2020 13:08:49 GMT
On Italy, I’d say that’s still an unknown - we need to wait to see final figures / second spike etc. before we can know either way for sure. The great unknown is how the public would have reacted if the lockdown was imposed too ‘early’? You can argue that imposing the lockdown slightly later meant people adhered to it far more. The PPE thing is an interesting one - I feel the government were attempting to obtain as much as they could, but were unable to do so. When you bear in mind the global capacity for PPE production, and the fact that the whole world was trying to obtain the stuff, I’m not sure quite how much more could have been done at that time? I see Cummings as too recent to make a call about - initial feeling I’d that it’ll ultimately be similar to the mixed messages coming from the government around the 8 May Bank Holiday. A bad thing, and something that encouraged those already keen to end lockdown to act irresponsibly. If lockdown completely breaks down in the next few days - I’ll completely agree with you there. Thing is with Cummings , who for me comes over as a total arse, is that other than old Boris nobody knows for sure how much power he has.They can guess and summise of course. He is the senior advisor to the PM, we know that for sure but the emphasis on the word advisor not official svengali ! For those who really really really hate him and the Tories with a passion and there are many in that category, he is the sperm of satan and is a Hitleresque dictator simply using Boris as a puppet to do whatever his personal agenda is. For those who really really really love the Tories they possibly see him as a necessary addition to the team , to simply offer inspiration , a lateral thinker, to give the PM food for thought. As i say I dont know the truth , I cant stand the man and wish he wasnt there but thats a different matter to understanding his power and how he uses it isnt it?
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Post by Mozzer on Jun 1, 2020 13:28:34 GMT
On Italy, I’d say that’s still an unknown - we need to wait to see final figures / second spike etc. before we can know either way for sure. The great unknown is how the public would have reacted if the lockdown was imposed too ‘early’? You can argue that imposing the lockdown slightly later meant people adhered to it far more. The PPE thing is an interesting one - I feel the government were attempting to obtain as much as they could, but were unable to do so. When you bear in mind the global capacity for PPE production, and the fact that the whole world was trying to obtain the stuff, I’m not sure quite how much more could have been done at that time? I see Cummings as too recent to make a call about - initial feeling I’d that it’ll ultimately be similar to the mixed messages coming from the government around the 8 May Bank Holiday. A bad thing, and something that encouraged those already keen to end lockdown to act irresponsibly. If lockdown completely breaks down in the next few days - I’ll completely agree with you there. If we'd acted sooner we'd have had fewer deaths. That's almost certain. People were saying we needed to at what had gone wrong in Italy very early on. I don't buy the 'go too early and suffer the consequences' argument. If it's right it is the job of government to lead. This is where I think one of their weaknesses betrayed them. There are no leaders. People could argue that's my prejudices coming through. Fair enough. They can tell me where we look like we've been led with vision, strength and purpose then. PPE: people were accessing their own. Still, the government's failure there was to ignore the advice of an independent review that said we were vulnerable in the event of such a thing happening. If you are warned and you ignore that warning, you are culpable. The thing about Cummings is the trust thing. It's pretty clear that a lot of people, not just arsey lefties, now no longer trust the government. If you support that behaviour and lie as pathetically as they did, people will lose the respect you need them to have. My 89 yo Mail reading neighbour has seen enough now. She's fuming with them. If you're losing your own, you've lost the country. In normal times I would find this cause for glee. These are not normal times. I could tell you why I think they've made these errors but as they only confirm what I was saying about them in December, I will stand accused of confirmation bias. But they are self aggrandising lying shits. And this is what you get.
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Post by HTC on Jun 1, 2020 15:06:06 GMT
Equally, if we’d acted sooner, we’d have had less PPE available / less hospital places available etc. The pubs also reporting NYE levels of sales on the last night pre-lockdown does at least provide some evidence that the public weren’t quite taking things seriously enough at that stage I’d suggest. From my recollection, plenty of people were at the ‘just flu innit’ view until at least late March.
Having said that, I completely agree that the lack of leadership from the government on the subject was a primary cause of this, and had we been led by Thatcher (boo hiss), Blair (boo hiss) Merkel or similar, rather than the current jokers, that would have been different. I’m just not convinced the current lot had the political capital to spend on enforcing lockdown
On Cummings, I broadly agree - it’s a hugely damaging political error caused by weak leadership. I’m just not (yet) convinced it’s a huge public health error. To take your anecdote above, I doubt your neighbour is now about to spend the next three weeks queueing for Primark (the opening of non-essential shops next week is the thing I’m expecting to be the biggest / worst error of all)
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Post by Mozzer on Jun 1, 2020 15:45:01 GMT
Equally, if we’d acted sooner, we’d have had less PPE available / less hospital places available etc. The pubs also reporting NYE levels of sales on the last night pre-lockdown does at least provide some evidence that the public weren’t quite taking things seriously enough at that stage I’d suggest. From my recollection, plenty of people were at the ‘just flu innit’ view until at least late March. Having said that, I completely agree that the lack of leadership from the government on the subject was a primary cause of this, and had we been led by Thatcher (boo hiss), Blair (boo hiss) Merkel or similar, rather than the current jokers, that would have been different. I’m just not convinced the current lot had the political capital to spend on enforcing lockdown On Cummings, I broadly agree - it’s a hugely damaging political error caused by weak leadership. I’m just not (yet) convinced it’s a huge public health error. To take your anecdote above, I doubt your neighbour is now about to spend the next three weeks queueing for Primark (the opening of non-essential shops next week is the thing I’m expecting to be the biggest / worst error of all) We'd have needed less PPE if we acted sooner, wouldn't we? The disease was spreading irrespective so no-one was any safer and were almost certainly worse off - if you contain it sooner you have fewer casualties and therefore less need for the gear. It is, also, (and I know you're not making this argument) no defence of their failure to ensure we had enough PPE in the first place. That's a categorical error. I take your point re. public health v political error. Fair enough and I agree that only time will tell. And I also take the implicit comment that anecdote is not evidence. I do acknowledge that there is balance to be struck between public health and the economy that is difficult to strike. I just think their actions tried to lean too much towards the latter in the first instance and, as a result, we're going end up worse off in both regards. That was avoidable.
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Post by bigmartin on Jun 1, 2020 17:47:24 GMT
Equally, if we’d acted sooner, we’d have had less PPE available / less hospital places available etc. The pubs also reporting NYE levels of sales on the last night pre-lockdown does at least provide some evidence that the public weren’t quite taking things seriously enough at that stage I’d suggest. From my recollection, plenty of people were at the ‘just flu innit’ view until at least late March. Having said that, I completely agree that the lack of leadership from the government on the subject was a primary cause of this, and had we been led by Thatcher (boo hiss), Blair (boo hiss) Merkel or similar, rather than the current jokers, that would have been different. I’m just not convinced the current lot had the political capital to spend on enforcing lockdown On Cummings, I broadly agree - it’s a hugely damaging political error caused by weak leadership. I’m just not (yet) convinced it’s a huge public health error. To take your anecdote above, I doubt your neighbour is now about to spend the next three weeks queueing for Primark (the opening of non-essential shops next week is the thing I’m expecting to be the biggest / worst error of all) We'd have needed less PPE if we acted sooner, wouldn't we? The disease was spreading irrespective so no-one was any safer and were almost certainly worse off - if you contain it sooner you have fewer casualties and therefore less need for the gear. It is, also, (and I know you're not making this argument) no defence of their failure to ensure we had enough PPE in the first place. That's a categorical error. I take your point re. public health v political error. Fair enough and I agree that only time will tell. And I also take the implicit comment that anecdote is not evidence. I do acknowledge that there is balance to be struck between public health and the economy that is difficult to strike. I just think their actions tried to lean too much towards the latter in the first instance and, as a result, we're going end up worse off in both regards. That was avoidable. Something not mentioned so much...didn't we have a huge advantage over countries such as Germany by the fact that we are an island and could have closed/monitored our borders earlier/more effectively? Or am I being unduly critical of our serving Government, who are striving against all the odds to do their best in the most pressing of circumstances ?
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Post by vicar on Jun 1, 2020 17:51:15 GMT
This government have made a complete mess, the figures prove it and quarantine from the 8th of June WTF? And that's as balanced as I can be.
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Post by HTC on Jun 1, 2020 18:50:45 GMT
@ Martin I’ll throw your own words back at you to answer this. members3.boardhost.com/marionsboard/msg/archive/1584643959.htmlBear in mind when you posted that, pretty much the only flights operating were rescue flights bringing people home to the U.K. Business travel had stopped, and my job for the middle two weeks of March involved frantically grabbing seats on the last flight departing from Rwanda / Costa Rica and various other places as various flights were cancelled at short notice. Would you have considered complete lockdown of the U.K. appropriate at that time?
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