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Post by Imposter on May 24, 2020 18:55:10 GMT
If we go up to the League we'll get up to League 1 - that's pretty much inevitable. As for getting to the Championship, the amount of money they seem prepared to spend and the effort they want to put in, I think it's likely we'll get there. And football being cyclical - does it have to be? Prior to Elton John and Graham Taylor, Watford were an archetypal 3rd/4th tier team. Since they left the 3rd tier in the late 1970's they've only spent 2 seasons outside the top 2 divisions. Similarly Coventry, prior to hitting the top Flight had spent a grand total of about 5 seasons above the 3rd tier - they left the third tier and didn't go back for about 40 years. Or in reverse Bury- barely out of the top 2 divisions until the late 60's, have since spent about 2 seasons up there since. Or Oldham, 21 years in the top 2 divisions until 1997, it's now been 23 years since they were last in the top 2 divisions. There's no reason why we couldn't establish ourselves as a top end League 1/Championship club. Look also at what happen at the likes of Reading and Hull, we all remember the 6 or 7 thousand at Elm Park or the 3 or 4 thousand at Boothferry Park. Now look at them.
How much money are they spending? Have they said or are we just assuming it's high because Stott is loaded? And is it being gifted by him or just loaned? I'm leaning towards not getting there, but only slightly, 60-40 say. We seem to be only considering best case scenario in the last couple of pages. There's another scenario where we don't get out of non-league. As long as we're keeping our minds open to that and every possibility in between. Owners who set lofty ambitions for their club and fail is a longer list.
Watford - A great example of punching above your weight for so long you end up moving up a weight category. The size of ground they can fill now, perhaps they've cracked it. Would be a good model. Not sure doing their ground up came before establishing themselves though?
Coventry - I think their example backs my points up. Capacity planned when considering themselves a Prem club forever more, it's never hosted games at that level and has generally been 60-70% empty.
Bury & Oldham - both wise not to build big capacities during long stints in the upper divisions.
Hull & Reading - both cases fascinate me really. The latter just seems like an affluent town that waited 100 years for the gentrification of football stadiums them suddenly all these new fans were just there. Brighton are perhaps similar but maybe the underlying demand was always there and they couldn't all fit in the Withdean. I don't get how Hull City quadrupled their crowds on Day One of the new stadium and have kept them ever since. Seems unlikely a couple of new stands at EP would do the same.
It's negative in the extreme to think we won't get out of non-League. We have a manager with a proven track record of success. We have a fan base that will provide strong financial backing compared to others from ticket and merchandise sales. We have owners who are wealthy and want to make a success of this, even if they put in a relatively small amount of money it will put us up with the bigger spenders of the division. It's more a question of how quickly we get up. And when we do get up we're almost certain to get up to League 1. Sheer momentum tends to push clubs up within a year or three - see Barnet first time they came up, Wycombe Cheltenham, Burton, Macc, Exeter, Carlisle, Bristol Rovers, Darlington, Oxford, Luton, etc... Highfield Road capacity was just under 24,000 when all-seater and bigger when not, including during their years in Division 3 South. Rather than being wise not to increase capacity, and the move from terrace to all-seater will have meant a drop in capacity, I think Oldham were foolish j those 21 years not to concentrate more efforts on increasing their fan base. Worth pointing out that Stockport and the surrounding area is pretty affluent itself. Economically it's more similar to Peterborough and surrounds than it is to Oldham, Huddersfield, and Stoke. Yes we have the Manc 2. But even so, if we reach out to that community, stretch what we do even more, offer tickets, offer facilities, increase the good we do, especially with the youngsters pre-fixed footballing allegiance - then there is a ready made quite wealthy fan base out there for us. None of us know for certain how things are going to work out. Although I do prefer looking forward with hopeful, if cautious, optimism. And of course being constantly vigilant. 🙂 |
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Post by CB1883 on May 24, 2020 21:01:29 GMT
I'd suggest two things. 1) Away followings are slightly largely. Last time we were there they were slightly under 1k on average. Average now is about 1.5k. And we'd likely get more due to being an ace away day with our transport links and close amenities. 2) We're starting from lower down with a bigger initial base than when we last climbed the leagues. Last time we were in the fourth tier and started with 1800-2000 home fans and hit around 6000-6,500 at our peak. This time our lowest ebb was 6th tier where the lowest I think we averaged was about 2,700-2,800. So if we follow a similar pattern then that 2,700-2,800 should increase by at least 3, 3.5 fold. So becoming 9.5k, but probably more like 10-10.5k when you throw in that we're starting two divisions lower. We're already seeing a growing fan base as people who only came in free tickets are now bringing their children and encouraging them as County fans. If we did hit 10-10.5k home fans then with away fans that becomes 11.5-12.5 crowds on average. With that 15k looks about right but a bit bigger doesn't look that massive. Worth pointing out for all the comparisons with Vale that Millwall and Preston both play in stadiums with capacity around the 20-22k mark with crowds around the 9-12k mark, and no one ever talks of them lacking for atmosphere. Accept both (1) and (2), although I think City being such a trophy winning machine is a factor in the other column to offset it a little. Still, we're talking about the upper limits of our potential on a thread about what ground improvements to do here and now when we're 40% full on average. I'm a fan of Jim but even one promotion is going to be hard enough never mind three! If/when all the conditions that justify building a 20,000 seater are satisfied, we'd then need to ponder how long we'd need it for. Same as in the late 90s, we'd be accepting that we'll come back down sooner or later. As someone's sig on the old place said, sport is cyclical. When that boom turns to bust, would all those seats we won't need any more in the lower divisions/conference have been worth building? Someone mentioned Bournemouth over the page, I expect they'll be a lower division club again one day, and if they are, will they regret they didn't build a stadium fit for a division they were never going to stay in? I don’t think I’ve seen anyone suggest that we do it all now? It was me that mentioned Bournemouth. Ok, let’s not develop EP out of fear that if we do climb the leagues, one day (who knows when?) we might get relegated. |
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Post by canterbury on May 24, 2020 22:36:20 GMT
CB - I think that's me misremembering the early pages of the thread about it starting soon, of course the "it" in question was a refurbishment not the redevelopment! Hopefully the club will wait and see what happens to crowds.
Imposter - yes staying non-league is the negative end of the spectrum, and not my opinion, I'm just saying it would be rash not to entertain it, the bit of that paragraph to really focus on was "and every possibility in between". The speculation upthread seems to be ignoring all but the very optimistic end of the scale. This division has always been notorious for clubs who are well set up for promotion to fail.
Could definitely see that swift second promotion if we did though, I remember thinking there was very little drop in standards when we came down here.
24,000 seems plenty for Coventry, to me they made a mistake in assuming they'd need more.
Didn't know Oldham hadn't put much effort into expanding their fanbase, hopefully if we spent that amount of time in the upper divisions we'd learn from their mistake.
HTC - really interesting points and the south being amateur for a lot longer is also a factor I think? They've always been playing catch-up.
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Post by Bilby on May 25, 2020 1:22:12 GMT
Not sure if true, but heard today the owners have visited and want to recreate similar to Groningens ground at the POP/RE. Car parking underneath the Pop side was mentioned. How, I'm not sure. As I'd imagine it'd be new changing rooms and everything else there. www.stadiumguide.com/euroborg/So i'm guessing similar to these two then? Interesting either way. I like the look of that stadium . The capacity is what I think County need for the Championship. It is no use being undersized when fans want to come. I used to go to the Dell a lot in the early 80's when I lived down there. Every game all ticket due to a capacity of 15700? Ridiclous how many were dissatisfied. On TV last week I saw a game from Daegu in South Korea. The stadium holds around 15000 with a chance to expand to 20000. I liked the height of the stands - no it would need better weatherproofing. |
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Post by Imposter on May 25, 2020 1:45:26 GMT
CB - I think that's me misremembering the early pages of the thread about it starting soon, of course the "it" in question was a refurbishment not the redevelopment! Hopefully the club will wait and see what happens to crowds. Imposter - yes staying non-league is the negative end of the spectrum, and not my opinion, I'm just saying it would be rash not to entertain it, the bit of that paragraph to really focus on was "and every possibility in between". The speculation upthread seems to be ignoring all but the very optimistic end of the scale. This division has always been notorious for clubs who are well set up for promotion to fail. Could definitely see that swift second promotion if we did though, I remember thinking there was very little drop in standards when we came down here. 24,000 seems plenty for Coventry, to me they made a mistake in assuming they'd need more. Didn't know Oldham hadn't put much effort into expanding their fanbase, hopefully if we spent that amount of time in the upper divisions we'd learn from their mistake. HTC - really interesting points and the south being amateur for a lot longer is also a factor I think? They've always been playing catch-up. The point about Coventry was they had much bigger than 24k, even when they were on the 3rd tier, had barely touched the 2nd tier, and didn't at the time, use it. They still had it though, because they were forward thinking. I don't suggesting that we might get average crowds around the 10k-14k mark in the Championship and thus could need.a capacity around the 16-19k mark is the extreme of optimism. It's more on the optimistic side granted but not at the extreme. The extreme would be saying, " we're going to the Premier League, we're going to settle there, we'll fill the maximum capacity we can squeeze at EP (22-23k maybe), and in 10-15 years we'll be faced with a choice of buying all the side streets back to Mercian Way, moving from EP, or every single game being a complete sellout" -THAT would be the extreme of optimism. That's say 1 on the Optimism Scale. Where I'm at is 2/3-ish. League 2 is probably about 4. Staying in non-League is probably about 5. |
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Post by County1999 on May 25, 2020 1:56:21 GMT
Tbf to Coventry City, the Ricoh Arena was due to be finished before they were relegated from the Premier League. It was delayed multiple times before being completed in 2005.
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Post by CB1883 on May 25, 2020 6:40:49 GMT
I like the idea of something similar to the Mestalla with the Main Stand keeping original character. Obviously we’d only need two tiers rather than three and most definitely a roof  |
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Post by timberwolf on May 25, 2020 8:16:11 GMT
at least we realistically have only the two manc clubs to worry about regarding gates. there will be a decent number that might go to watch scouse clubs and others but you can say that for any club in the country nowadays. oldhams problem is like ours its the manc clubs but on top of that the smaller towns to the west of them like uppermill etc. have been part of the huddersfield town catchment area. even the local saturday and sunday league clubs play in the huddersfield area and not around oldham.
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Post by Imposter on May 25, 2020 9:35:51 GMT
at least we realistically have only the two manc clubs to worry about regarding gates. there will be a decent number that might go to watch scouse clubs and others but you can say that for any club in the country nowadays. oldhams problem is like ours its the manc clubs but on top of that the smaller towns to the west of them like uppermill etc. have been part of the huddersfield town catchment area. even the local saturday and sunday league clubs play in the huddersfield area and not around oldham. Not to mention Oldham also have Rochdale next door, and are closer to Burnley, Bolton, Blackburn. And rugby has a strong following in the town. That always used to get me when someone invested in a team the North side of the conurbation - Oldham, Bury, Wigan etc.. Just what they could achieve if they invested in us with literally no real opposition (city and utd aside) for miles around. |
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Post by timberwolf on May 25, 2020 10:47:10 GMT
That always used to get me when someone invested in a team the North side of the conurbation - Oldham, Bury, Wigan etc.. Just what they could achieve if they invested in us with literally no real opposition (city and utd aside) for miles around. something that i could never get my head round as well. on the surface of things we look like a club who should be turning investors away due to the town and its geography. if i wanted to invest in a rugby league club then oldham would be my first choice due to the nature of the town and its distance from other RL clubs. |
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Post by canterbury on May 25, 2020 18:30:34 GMT
I don't suggesting that we might get average crowds around the 10k-14k mark in the Championship and thus could need.a capacity around the 16-19k mark is the extreme of optimism. It's more on the optimistic side granted but not at the extreme. The extreme would be saying, " we're going to the Premier League, we're going to settle there, we'll fill the maximum capacity we can squeeze at EP (22-23k maybe), and in 10-15 years we'll be faced with a choice of buying all the side streets back to Mercian Way, moving from EP, or every single game being a complete sellout" -THAT would be the extreme of optimism. That's say 1 on the Optimism Scale. Where I'm at is 2/3-ish. League 2 is probably about 4. Staying in non-League is probably about 5. I'm a bit confused, is this a scale of 1-5? Or 1-10? Tbf to Coventry City, the Ricoh Arena was due to be finished before they were relegated from the Premier League. It was delayed multiple times before being completed in 2005. Yep. Relegation seems to be a notion that just did not occur to them, they're probably the lengthiest example of punching above their weight (34 years in the end) but footballing gravity works even longer-term. Genuinely wonder what the majority fan view is on the size of ground they built with 15 years of hindsight. |
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Post by Imposter on May 25, 2020 19:11:22 GMT
I don't suggesting that we might get average crowds around the 10k-14k mark in the Championship and thus could need.a capacity around the 16-19k mark is the extreme of optimism. It's more on the optimistic side granted but not at the extreme. The extreme would be saying, " we're going to the Premier League, we're going to settle there, we'll fill the maximum capacity we can squeeze at EP (22-23k maybe), and in 10-15 years we'll be faced with a choice of buying all the side streets back to Mercian Way, moving from EP, or every single game being a complete sellout" -THAT would be the extreme of optimism. That's say 1 on the Optimism Scale. Where I'm at is 2/3-ish. League 2 is probably about 4. Staying in non-League is probably about 5. I'm a bit confused, is this a scale of 1-5? Or 1-10? Tbf to Coventry City, the Ricoh Arena was due to be finished before they were relegated from the Premier League. It was delayed multiple times before being completed in 2005. Yep. Relegation seems to be a notion that just did not occur to them, they're probably the lengthiest example of punching above their weight (34 years in the end) but footballing gravity works even longer-term. Genuinely wonder what the majority fan view is on the size of ground they built with 15 years of hindsight. Scale of 1-5 as listed. |
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Post by HTC on May 25, 2020 19:44:14 GMT
What number is going out of business completely?
Or even going bust and restarting at level 9?
Both scenarios more likely than ‘become established premier league stalwart’ to be honest.
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Post by Imposter on May 25, 2020 21:32:58 GMT
What number is going out of business completely? Or even going bust and restarting at level 9? Both scenarios more likely than ‘become established premier league stalwart’ to be honest. They might well be. I merely used, "become established premier league stalwart" to mean the extremity of optimism. I never meant that I thought we might reach such a level. |
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Post by timberwolf on May 26, 2020 9:02:17 GMT
Yep. Relegation seems to be a notion that just did not occur to them, they're probably the lengthiest example of punching above their weight (34 years in the end) but footballing gravity works even longer-term. Genuinely wonder what the majority fan view is on the size of ground they built with 15 years of hindsight. worked in coventry at the time with a number of their fans. at the time they thought the new ground would be filled every week, the would play in europe every season and actually join the so called big six. as a fan base they certainly punched above their weight believing all the hype that came out of their club. most fans think that next season is going to be theirs, but they took it to totally unrealistic levels. no wonder they are an unhappy bunch nowadays. |
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